The Case for Natural Gas Maximalism
NG is truly a Swiss Army Knife: a multi-modal substrate that provides fast-ramping, firm capacity, cogeneration, and backup for distributed systems. Phase it out at your peril
In February, the CPUC made formal the latest iteration of its resource buildout recommendations for the CAISO’s transmission planning process. In this “Integrated Resource Planning” context, or IRP, the CPUC envisions that 63 gigawatts of new storage and clean energy will need to come online between now and 2035 in order to achieve state decarbonization goals.
The new IRP portfolio anticipates a 71% reduction in natural gas use by 2035 and an 80% reduction by 2040. “This is an extremely promising glimpse of a possible future,” said Commissioner John Reynolds back in February.
This giddy approach seems quite reckless, because if we are going to sideline dispatchable capacity, shouldn’t we have some foreknowledge that long-duration storage, hydrogen, and firm clean resources can scale in its absence? The IRP path is a high-stakes gamble made not by rigorous thinkers, but by ideologues who have failed every major epistemological test of the past 15 years. But for some reason, we must trust their judgment on “the energy transition.”
As conceived, the IRP resource buildout would lock-in a trajectory of structural gas decline with no guarantee that the replacement resources are adequate. This trajectory may collapse gas throughput below resilience thresholds (especially during peak winter demand). It could also raise rates significantly and load the costs of decarbonization onto those who might not even benefit from it.
Such effects are already noticeable, and Diablo Canyon's extension is a tacit admission that clean firm resources aren’t even close to being ready.
As an aside, look at the chart below, which provides a 15-year trajectory of SoCalGas commercial and industrial (“noncore”) rates. I created the chart using noncore customers because they are canary-in-the-coalmine indicators for broader system health; they have structural exposure to rate volatility and feel real-time spot market movements (e.g., during events like January 2023’s price spike.)
The constant upward arc of their rates (while gas demand shrinks) hints at looming fixed-cost recovery issues (fewer therms, higher per-unit charges), which may become much more pronounced in the years ahead. In industry parlance, this is called the “utility death spiral,” and neither clever accounting nor deluded RESOLVE modeling1 will cure it.
Brace yourself, and get ready for more.
Near-Term Natural Gas Recommendations
Going forward, California should loop its natural gas pipelines (i.e., build parallel pipelines along existing routes to increase capacity or redundancy). Spoiler alert: This will not happen.
The state should also enable SoCalGas to harden its interconnect points, albeit with strong ratepayer guardrails in place. Topock, Ehrenberg, Wheeler Ridge, and Blythe are vulnerable chokepoints that would benefit from throughput-boosting capacity upgrades, enhancements to their physical and cyber-security, and the facilitation of bidirectional flows and dynamic rerouting when curtailments or supply shocks hit (e.g., during Southwest cold snaps or amidst Permian supply volatility).
Last, the state should permit next-gen Combined Cycle Gas Turbines,2 with cogeneration or Zero-Liquid Discharge3 integration to deliver firm power, industrial heat, and water resilience in one self-contained build.
Maximizing existing NG infrastructure and taking advantage of cutting-edge innovation in NG technologies will allow for optimal harmonization with renewables. Additionally this will buy time for battery storage technologies to iterate and scale, and for the mass hypnosis of anti-nuclear propaganda4 to wear off once and for all.
If our self-styled intellectual betters are actually serious about climate threats, then this healthy realism would serve their cause well.
CCGTs are the most efficient gas plants available and can often achieve 60%+ thermal efficiency. Pairing a CCGT with cogeneration means you're not just making electrons; you’re also using the waste heat, which is ideal for data centers, biotech, and desalination.
ZLD is a concept that mostly surfaces in water treatment contexts, but it’s creeping into California gas infrastructure and clean-fuel proposals (especially hydrogen and carbon capture). A gas plant with ZLD integration can recover brine or wastewater from industrial sources, power desalination or advanced water reuse, and support drought-resilient infrastructure, particularly in Southern California. This is huge in places like the Central Valley or coastal counties where water stress is acute and new water sources need power.
See also: https://www.macrovoices.com/podcast-transcripts/1146-mark-nelson-understanding-all-things-nuclear?utm_source=chatgpt.com